Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has released its first prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, projecting 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes. This early forecast, issued last month, suggests that the upcoming season’s activity will likely be close to the 1991-2020 30-year average.
The forecast details include:
- 15 tropical storms
- 7 hurricanes
- 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 129
TSR notes that while uncertainties remain high at this early stage, their model indicates a 48% chance of near-normal activity, a 34% chance of above-normal activity, and an 18% chance of below-normal activity.
Key factors influencing this forecast include:
- Expected near-neutral ENSO conditions during summer and autumn 2025
- Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region and Caribbean Sea
- Analysis of comparable years with similar climatological conditions
The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th, 2025.
TSR emphasizes that forecast skill is historically low at this lead time, and significant changes may occur in subsequent updates. The next revision to the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is scheduled for release on April 7, 2025.
Coastal residents and stakeholders are advised to stay informed about evolving predictions and to prepare for the possibility of tropical cyclone activity, regardless of the season’s overall forecast.
