The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) organization today released the first long-range forecast for the 2025 Atlantic cyclone season. The projection indicates the possibility of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes next year, numbers that approach the 30-year average.
Although these early predictions are generally interpreted with caution, they offer an overview of the climatological factors that may influence cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin in the upcoming season.
TSR states: “We predict that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2025 will be close to the 30-year average (1991-2020). This outlook presents significant uncertainties, and forecast accuracy at this time is low.”
TSR’s forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season includes 15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes, with a predicted Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 129.
The institute estimates a 34% probability that the ACE index will be in the upper tercile (above 156), a 48% chance of it being in the middle tercile (between 75 and 156), and an 18% likelihood of it falling in the lower tercile (below 75).
In explaining the climatological conditions that may influence the 2025 season, TSR highlighted expectations related to El Niño / La Niña and the possibility of above-average sea surface temperatures in crucial areas for tropical storm development in the Atlantic.
“The factors influencing our extended forecast for 2025 include near-neutral ENSO conditions expected during summer and autumn 2025, as well as warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region and Caribbean Sea,” TSR reported.
However, the institution emphasizes: “It’s important to note that uncertainties at this time are significant, and forecast skill is historically low at this lead time.”
It’s worth mentioning that a recent study by Euler ILS Partners and TSR highlighted that the July forecast, at the start of the hurricane season, can provide useful information for portfolio and hedging decision-making for insurance-linked securities (ILS) funds.
Nevertheless, these long-range forecasts, such as the one released today, are primarily informative at this early stage.
